Study predicts U.S. exports would knock 6% from LNG price in Japan
(Environment & Energy Daily, Nov. 16) -- If the United States goes forward with significant exports of liquefied natural gas, the result is likely to be a modest price increase at home and a more significant price drop abroad that will reshape the global marketplace, an upcoming assessment predicts.
The study of projected global impacts stemming from U.S. LNG exports is due to be published by Deloitte MarketPoint at the end of November. In a presentation Nov. 15 at the North America Gas Summit 2012, Deloitte's natural gas market leader Tom Choi previewed the results obtained from running a mid-level quantity of LNG exports through the firm's world gas model, a decades-old tool for analyzing market forces.
The result is a shift that could benefit gas-importing countries like Japan, the United Kingdom and Germany, while hurting exporters like Russia. The study compared U.S. exports of 6 billion cubic feet per day against a scenario of no exports. What the study found was that exports would have a limited effect on U.S. gas prices from 2015 to 2030, increasing prices 24 cents per million Btu. U.S. exports would affect world prices slightly more, with a drop of about 6 percent of the projected average price in Japan.